Why this page exists

I wanted a planning tool that reflects how I actually hike rather than using generic pace rules.

The figures on this page come from my own Strava hiking history. The aim is not to produce a perfect forecast. It is to give me a better first estimate when I am planning a route with a known distance and ascent profile.

How to use it

Enter a planned distance and total elevation gain, then pick a break style.

The calculator now estimates in two steps:

1. Moving speed and moving time from distance plus climb density
2. Stop-time buffer from expected day length and selected break style

You then get:

• likely moving speed
• likely elapsed speed
• likely moving time
• likely elapsed time

This update is based on deeper analysis of my own history showing elapsed time is influenced more by total duration and break behavior than by climb density alone.

How to read the result

Treat the estimate as a baseline rather than a promise.

It still needs judgment for:

• rough or technical terrain
• heavy pack weight
• repeated days on trail
• weather exposure
• navigation complexity
• water or resupply constraints

If a route is unusually rocky, hot, off-trail, or broken up by long stops, the elapsed time estimate will usually need more margin.

What changed after deeper analysis

The deeper pass on my Strava data highlighted that:

• elapsed time correlates strongly with both distance and total ascent
• stop time grows with moving duration and total day workload
• a single elapsed-speed line tends to under-estimate tougher days

So this page now uses a moving-time estimate plus a stop-time layer rather than one direct elapsed-speed slope.

What I want to improve next

This first version is using my current Strava history connected to the site.

The next step is to turn the same idea into a user feature so other people can authorise Strava, analyse their own hiking history, and generate personal predictions rather than borrowing generic pacing advice.